Modeling and forecasting realized volatility in GermanAustrian continuous intraday electricity prices

Aitor Ciarreta, Peru Muniain and Ainhoa Zarraga
Journal of Forecasting, Volume 36, Issue 6, 680-690.

This paper uses high-frequency continuous intraday electricity price data from the EPEX market to estimate and forecast realized volatility. Three different jump tests are used to break down the variation into jump and continuous components using quadratic variation theory. Several heterogeneous autoregressive models are then estimated for the logarithmic and standard deviation transformations. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) structures are included in the error terms of the models when evidence of conditional heteroskedasticity is found. Model selection is based on various out-of-sample criteria. Results show that decomposition of realized volatility is important for forecasting and that the decision whether to include GARCH-type innovations might depend on the transformation selected. Finally, results are sensitive to the jump test used in the case of the standard deviation transformation.


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